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Moore's Law: In two years your new computer will be obsolete

Posted on: Jun, 18th 2010
Gordon Moore’s photo
Gordon Moore, one of the Intel founders, published in a magazine of 1965 a "law" known as Moore's Law, that tells: "the number of transistor of a processor doubles every 24 month". Can be interpreted as: "every two years the processors are twice fast at the same price". That "law" it's satisfied every year, but, Will stop at sometime?

In 1971 a processor had 2.300 transistors. Today its arrive to one billion and within two years, according to the law exposed before, it will be two billions.

That increment of the density of transistors it's achieved reducing its size.

Morgan Sparks photoLook the photo of the first transistor applicable to electronic devices (Morgan Sparks, one of its inventors are holding it). Imagine how have evolved at size since 1965, if now the size of transistors are ¡32 nanometers! (1 nanometers = 0,000001 milimeters). Think that we can't see nothing more small than 40.000 nanometers and a human hair has a diameter of about 50.000 nanometers and a red cell 7.000 nm.

But, if the performance of the processors depends of the capacity of build transistors every time more and more smaller, will arrive a moment that will be imposible reduce it more, and the Moore's law will stop working.

If we look the positive side, will can buy computers at the future that will not end being obsolete.

Gordon Moore says that this will happen in a indeterminate moment between 2017 and 2022, when we arrive to the 7 or 8 nanometeres, but he trust that a new tecnology will allow make chips more bigger to surpass that limit.

I think maybe it will be a change of the transistors by memristors or other type of transistors that can work at the speed of light. What do you think? Will stall the technology at one point in that physically can't be better? or, Will continue evolving until to the infinite and beyond, as Buzz Lightyear says?

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